This needed to be written a few weeks ago, when the Indian team was tying their bootlaces, in batches, in preparation of the journey to fair Australia. With all the tension and hype that usually surrounds a tour Down Under, channels playing up the controversies of the past, commentators turning into media personalities with opinions that mattered to god-knows-who, images of Ponting growling, and an ironically missing Shane Watson sniggering "It's hot in Australia" were all over the sports channels. The first Test is on now, with Day 3 just out of the way, so some of my upcoming comments will appear less of a prediction and more of a I told you so. Be that as it may, I can say that my views have not changed much since a couple of weeks ago, and those thoughts are what I am going to try and express.
Things have changed since the last tour down under. The acrimonious 2008 tour was between 2 Test teams at the pinnacle of Test cricket, competing for the World no 1 tag. If that gave the skirmishes on and off field that extra bite, then this time around, despite all the media attempts to raise the level of hoopla, the stakes are lower. At least on paper. Australia is a team in the nascent stages of a revival, with several question marks hanging over its batting order, its young pace attack, and the qualities of the new skipper. India is still to emerge from the shadows of the hut they crept into after the horrific beating they received in England, just after the euphoria of the World Cup win. Only a seriously deluded individual would point at recent triumphs against England(one-day) and the West Indies(Test and one-day) as anything more than expected results. Losses in these series would have meant catastrophe in every sense of that word.
So both teams have something to prove, and are also not that high in the pecking order to believe that the rest of the world is in stop-press mode to watch this series. That said, there's no reason why we should not look forward to it, simply because this is Test cricket being played by two very good sides. Batting travails notwithstanding, Australia has a lot going for it, and despite the recent Test loss to New Zealand at home, they have every chance of keeping the Border-Gavaskar trophy within the confines of the CA office.
On with the predictions then. Well, what the final result in terms of score will be I will not hazard to guess. In terms of the result, I fear that Australia will retain the trophy, either by winning the series, or by sharing honours with India. the reasons are not very different from my prognosis of the World Cup fortunes of the Indian team. And yes, I know I had to eat my words back then, but there are some critical game changers that need considering.
1. This is not a home series - The last overseas trip saw the Indians return home without a single win, and traditionally Australia has never been kind to Indian cricketers. While several commentators have picked this as the best opportunity for a first ever triumph down under, they seem to be blind to the frailties of the Indian team.
2. Mystery bowlers - on paper, when the original team was announced, I exulted at what I saw as potentially the best attack I had seen in an Indian team. Zaheer is one of the top 5 bowlers in the world today when fit, Ishant has the potential to follow in his footsteps despite an indifferent series in England, and later; Young tearaways Umesh Yadav and Varun Aaron were as fast as the paciest in the world, and had aspects to the game that induced salivation in those who had been fed on a diet of prasads, prabhakars and praveen kumars for as long as they could remember. The spin troika had me so excited I went crazy on twitter one day. variety, guile, and great promise. All it seemingly needs to achieve greatness was encouragement and as Michael Clarke put it in reference to the young Ed Cummings 'looking after'. But that picture was soiled a bit, first when Aaron had to pull out with injury, joining Praveen Kumar and Sreesanth on the sidelines, then as Ishant Sharma bowled 5 and a half overs in a warm-up game and seemed to be nursing his ankle. With Zak on the comeback trail, the signs were ominous. I have little confidence in Mithun and Vinay Kumar and hope they stay on the bench for the Test series at least. Not that they aren't good bowlers, but because they may not be the kind of bowlers suited to this environment. Luckily enough both Ishant and Zak started the first test, but clearly both are just finding their rhythms and I fear that will cost us the first Test. Ishant is bowling well, but it seems like he's holding back just a touch, as if afraid of straining pulling or stretching something. and he's not had the best of luck either, bring to mind the sad old story of Javagal Srinath, who would toil all day, beat all kinds of batsmen and have didley-squat to show for it.
3. Brittle batting - this is a age-old, era-old problem and doesn't need explanation. Darren Sammy recently said, the Indian batsmen just keep coming at you, so you can never say you are safe if a bunch of wickets fall together. That is undoubtedly true, but there are times that all these feared bats collapse in a heap, as we say this morning when we lost 8 wickets for 68. The most exciting batting line-up in the world is also frail, and susceptible to applied pressure. And in a reversal of fortunes, we find the in-form Rohit Sharma having to watch from the sidelines, preference naturally going to the consistent Virat Kohli. Ian Chappell did have a case when he pitched for the inclusion of the more talented and equipped Sharma, but it would have been unfair to young Kohli, especially since he's shown no perceptible dip in form. The difference may be in temperament though. Sharma is as dogged as he is swash-buckling, and perhaps that makes a case for his inclusion in the next Test. And who knows, Kohli might churn out a match-making innings the second time around. Tomorrow, quite literally is a different day (By the time this is published, India would be preparing to chase down 250 in the fourth innings to win the match.)
4. The little battles - at the end of the day, this series might well be decided by virtue of which side wins the most number of sessions, or even actions. The odd stolen run, the odd half-chance caught, the odd run save, the urgency of the running. Sehwag might well hit more boundaries than the rest of the players combined, but the type of running between wickets that Ponting and Hussey put on display today might well make the difference between winning and losing. From 27 for 4 to 179 for 8, mostly through aggressive running and stroke making is the type of cricket for which the Australians have always been revered. Its why we might bowl better than them, but still not win. Its why the Aussie selectors retain faith in the old guard even when the deafening clamour is for the scalps of two of the finest batsmen in their history.
So it will be close, close enough for this to be a tight series, but despite the depleted strength of the hosts, I believe there is enough there to squeeze past the indians. And God forbid, should the second innings batting collapse be worse than our collective imagination, or should one of Zak or Ishant break down, the psychological advantage will be enough to firmly tilt the scales towards the Aussies.
Wednesday, December 28, 2011
Monday, April 4, 2011
Sweet, Sweet Humble Pie
It is done!. The World Cup has been won. There are several experts around the world (along with a few bookies in England) who are looking at detractors and smirking away their "I told you so"s. Yours truly was one that did not believe. And did not believe till 38 for 2 in the final. What happened after that however did not just shake me by the scruff of the neck, but also finally drove home a conviction that deep down, I have always had. This is what the Indian team was always capable of.
This is not my way of squirming out of the hole I dug myself into when I wrote my previous two-part blog. This is also not my endeavour to find an elegant way out of my thoroughly flawed predictions. I accept censure. You know those 'detractors' that Ravi Shastri said would shut up after the final? Well, I am one of them, and have no qualms accepting that. This victory is so sweet it makes every bit of thrown back shit sweeter. So, we are in the position (a weird but welcome situation) of asking what went right. Quite a few things actually. People have attributed this historical achievement to things like peaking on time, an uber-cool captain, a resurgent Yuvraj, a determined Tendulkar, and the batting order delivering on its promise. My premise is to look at it from the point of view of my earlier blogs. The things that could have gone horribly wrong didn't.
1. The opening triumvirate worked. Sachin, Sehwag and Gambhir all played crucial roles in different games. Sachin seemed like a man on a mission, which he probably was, and the other seemed to just keep him as a focal point to help inspire them through every game. Sehwag opened with a high scoring ton in the opening game, and then played small but critical parts in other matches. His demolition job of Umar Gul will remain one of the unsung causes of the semi final victory, if ever an analysis is done on the game by the Pak officials. Gambhir was not in the best of touch throughout and often had to make his own luck, but he stuck around most times, and grafted a splendid 97 when it mattered most.
2. The shaky middle order - the worst thing that could have happened was Yuvraj hitting a trough instead of the peak that he found himself on instead. It wasn't all plain sailing in the beginning. Misfields and horrible running peppered his early innings, and though he kept winning MOMs, I wasn't convinced till the Quarters. By then, it was clear that this was another determined individual, who had decided that form is not automatic, and talent alone would take him nowhere. The result was a visibly alert, aware performance which also fed off the success in the bowling department. A brief blip in the semis caused a flutter, but nothing put all doubts to rest like that super stop in the field in the final, when the Indian fielding was incredibly even better than the Lankans'. The dive was eager, resolute, and not showy as it has been in the past. If this is the new resurgent Yuvraj that we will continue to see after this success, then Indian cricket is on the good path. Kohli's position in the order kept changing, due to the captain's lack of conviction about his own place in the order, and that disturbed the lad's equilibrium a little. There was enough for the young Kohli to do though, especially in the final when he helped bring stability to the innings before Dhoni took it home. Raina also found some form with the bat, and though Pathan could never re create his Bangla bash, he is a weapon one should be proud of having in reserve.
3. The skipper - The man with the golden touch continues to flourish, but I may never doubt his decisions again. I still feel his floating around the order should be more controlled, and some of his decisions still rankle. Preferring Chawla over Ashwin and bringing in Sreesanth in the final could well have been decisions he would regret and would be vilified for if India had not won. He even admitted this in the post match interview. What all will appreciate however is his openness about this and the humble acceptance of what must seem to him and most now, a very desirable turn of fortune. Luck had nothing to do with his spectacular shepherding of the run case in the final though. That was an innings as good as I have ever seen, one that means more for the one day game of 50 overs than anything else. Any student of the game will know what a great advertisement that innings was.
4. The weak bowling - is still weak, but was able to restrict teams to manageable totals when it mattered. Australia and Sri Lanka both struggled to safe-ish targets, and after England, none could cross even 280 against the beleaguered and blunt attack. Zaheer strove manfully and had at least 6 great overs in every match, Ashwin was great when he got the chance, Munaf cleaned up his act towards the end, and Nehra played a vital role in the semis in strangulating the Pakistanis in their chase. Harbhajan didn't get too many wickets, and I still think he needs to be dropped for a few matches to allow him to circumspect and go back to the basics maybe, but he did keep the runs down most times. Sreesanth may have played his last match for India(at least for a while), but that depends on whether Dhoni will let go of his lucky mascot. The man has been in Dhoni's 11 in almost all of his triumphs and the skipper might not want to let him go that easy.
All in all, what seemed to have mattered most was the team's determination not to give up. It appears that Sachin Tendulkar gave them something to aim at and they all played out of their skins to win him his first Cup in what must certainly be his last. That determination was seen in each dogged fight that every game became. None of India's matches, except perhaps the Holland one, were spectacularly easy wins. Every performance was workman like, stripped bare of style, but heavy on substance. There were flashes of brilliance, but also plain ugly performances(the great master's innings against Pak being a glaring example) as well. There was a lot of sweat, huffing and puffing, but never did it seem like the team wasn't trying. Even when the chips were down, which was almost in every match, the boys held on, scrambling furiously to stay afloat, then grabbing viciously at the first opportunity, and finishing in style after that. It was the kind of performance that makes me proud to be Indian, at a time when not much else does.
So with the World Cup won, one hope the players get what they deserve - some time off with the family. All the other condiments and side shows are irrelevant. What is a crore worth when you can't spend it with the people you care, love, and are the reason you are?
Seems to be a lost cause though. The circus is only getting started. Read from the link below, and commiserate for our brave young men...and their dear ones.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/oliverbrett/2011/04/indias_turn_to_dominate_cricke.html
This is not my way of squirming out of the hole I dug myself into when I wrote my previous two-part blog. This is also not my endeavour to find an elegant way out of my thoroughly flawed predictions. I accept censure. You know those 'detractors' that Ravi Shastri said would shut up after the final? Well, I am one of them, and have no qualms accepting that. This victory is so sweet it makes every bit of thrown back shit sweeter. So, we are in the position (a weird but welcome situation) of asking what went right. Quite a few things actually. People have attributed this historical achievement to things like peaking on time, an uber-cool captain, a resurgent Yuvraj, a determined Tendulkar, and the batting order delivering on its promise. My premise is to look at it from the point of view of my earlier blogs. The things that could have gone horribly wrong didn't.
1. The opening triumvirate worked. Sachin, Sehwag and Gambhir all played crucial roles in different games. Sachin seemed like a man on a mission, which he probably was, and the other seemed to just keep him as a focal point to help inspire them through every game. Sehwag opened with a high scoring ton in the opening game, and then played small but critical parts in other matches. His demolition job of Umar Gul will remain one of the unsung causes of the semi final victory, if ever an analysis is done on the game by the Pak officials. Gambhir was not in the best of touch throughout and often had to make his own luck, but he stuck around most times, and grafted a splendid 97 when it mattered most.
2. The shaky middle order - the worst thing that could have happened was Yuvraj hitting a trough instead of the peak that he found himself on instead. It wasn't all plain sailing in the beginning. Misfields and horrible running peppered his early innings, and though he kept winning MOMs, I wasn't convinced till the Quarters. By then, it was clear that this was another determined individual, who had decided that form is not automatic, and talent alone would take him nowhere. The result was a visibly alert, aware performance which also fed off the success in the bowling department. A brief blip in the semis caused a flutter, but nothing put all doubts to rest like that super stop in the field in the final, when the Indian fielding was incredibly even better than the Lankans'. The dive was eager, resolute, and not showy as it has been in the past. If this is the new resurgent Yuvraj that we will continue to see after this success, then Indian cricket is on the good path. Kohli's position in the order kept changing, due to the captain's lack of conviction about his own place in the order, and that disturbed the lad's equilibrium a little. There was enough for the young Kohli to do though, especially in the final when he helped bring stability to the innings before Dhoni took it home. Raina also found some form with the bat, and though Pathan could never re create his Bangla bash, he is a weapon one should be proud of having in reserve.
3. The skipper - The man with the golden touch continues to flourish, but I may never doubt his decisions again. I still feel his floating around the order should be more controlled, and some of his decisions still rankle. Preferring Chawla over Ashwin and bringing in Sreesanth in the final could well have been decisions he would regret and would be vilified for if India had not won. He even admitted this in the post match interview. What all will appreciate however is his openness about this and the humble acceptance of what must seem to him and most now, a very desirable turn of fortune. Luck had nothing to do with his spectacular shepherding of the run case in the final though. That was an innings as good as I have ever seen, one that means more for the one day game of 50 overs than anything else. Any student of the game will know what a great advertisement that innings was.
4. The weak bowling - is still weak, but was able to restrict teams to manageable totals when it mattered. Australia and Sri Lanka both struggled to safe-ish targets, and after England, none could cross even 280 against the beleaguered and blunt attack. Zaheer strove manfully and had at least 6 great overs in every match, Ashwin was great when he got the chance, Munaf cleaned up his act towards the end, and Nehra played a vital role in the semis in strangulating the Pakistanis in their chase. Harbhajan didn't get too many wickets, and I still think he needs to be dropped for a few matches to allow him to circumspect and go back to the basics maybe, but he did keep the runs down most times. Sreesanth may have played his last match for India(at least for a while), but that depends on whether Dhoni will let go of his lucky mascot. The man has been in Dhoni's 11 in almost all of his triumphs and the skipper might not want to let him go that easy.
All in all, what seemed to have mattered most was the team's determination not to give up. It appears that Sachin Tendulkar gave them something to aim at and they all played out of their skins to win him his first Cup in what must certainly be his last. That determination was seen in each dogged fight that every game became. None of India's matches, except perhaps the Holland one, were spectacularly easy wins. Every performance was workman like, stripped bare of style, but heavy on substance. There were flashes of brilliance, but also plain ugly performances(the great master's innings against Pak being a glaring example) as well. There was a lot of sweat, huffing and puffing, but never did it seem like the team wasn't trying. Even when the chips were down, which was almost in every match, the boys held on, scrambling furiously to stay afloat, then grabbing viciously at the first opportunity, and finishing in style after that. It was the kind of performance that makes me proud to be Indian, at a time when not much else does.
So with the World Cup won, one hope the players get what they deserve - some time off with the family. All the other condiments and side shows are irrelevant. What is a crore worth when you can't spend it with the people you care, love, and are the reason you are?
Seems to be a lost cause though. The circus is only getting started. Read from the link below, and commiserate for our brave young men...and their dear ones.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/oliverbrett/2011/04/indias_turn_to_dominate_cricke.html
Thursday, January 27, 2011
Part 2: Be Positive!!
“Be positive, why you have to think negative all the time??” exclaimed the venerable K Srikant. That was the way he played his cricket, so I guess he is entitled to expect leaps of faith from everyone else. And a closer look at the final 15 selected by his team will reveal cracks of a worrying nature. Cracks that will be decisive in the chase for India’s elusive second World Cup title. Cracks which will in my opinion prevent India from winning this in about a month’s time.
Don’t get me wrong, Srikant is right when he says he’s selected the best 15 possible. A post-selection mental poll reveals that most people agree with the selection, save for one or two choices. Most think Rohit Sharma should have got his chance. Most also think there should have been a second wicket-keeper. Some think there is one spinner too many. Well, all these viewpoints make sense, and so will the selectors’ counter. Rohit Sharma has not been doing too well recently. Besides, the decision was made to go with the extra bowler, so where was the place he could have taken? The extra wicketkeeper is usually a passenger, one of the few that will never get a significant game unless there was an injury to Dhoni, or if you wanted to rest him for one of the insignificant games (the premise being we will win every match before that, thus confirming our place in the knockouts well in time for us to experiment-a rather pompous assumption). The extra spinner provides variety. Harbhajan is an automatic choice, Ashwin the next best, and since both are offies, traditional common sense makes it mandatory to have a leggie over a left-armer.
There are flaws in each of those arguments, but let’s put all that aside and take a gander at what we have finally assembled as a team that is tasked with winning back the Cup.
1. The Mystery Triumvirate – This is the trio that will head India’s batting order. I presume Sehwag and Tendulkar will open, and Gambhir will follow. Besides the obvious injury concerns, none of these 3 have played too many one-day internationals recently, have not really proved consistent form, and are in constant danger of breaking down. Besides, India have played, and won, quite a few matches without them. No one doubts their caliber, but and one wonders if their reputations are worth tweaking a combination that works and was just coming good. If the 3 play, Pathan and Kohli or possibly Yuvraj are almost certain to miss out playing in the final 11. Ironic, since the first two just mentioned are in great form, and Pathan has certainly emerged as someone who could make the difference between a loss and a win.
2. The prince and the incumbent- Yuvraj and Raina will almost certainly make up nos 4 and 5. Both are in, to put it generously, indifferent form. It has been a while since either has won a match for India, though like the top 3, their past reputations had confirmed their place in this line-up ages ago. Can either of them win a match from 60 for 4 chasing 280 or more? I wouldn’t bet my valuables on it.
3. The Super Skipper – Well, of all his qualities, I think the average Indian fan will hope he will bring whatever lucky charms he uses to retain his Midas touch. There is no argument against his record, and his persona has brought about a certain strength in the team, an aggression that was hitherto missing in previous teams. When he won the inaugural T20 World Cup, the commentators had remarked on his team’s fearlessness that seemed to carry them out of seemingly hopeless situations. That team is older now, and positions of grandeur usually leads to delusions of other kinds of superiority. Of his batting, there are times when he has excelled when others fail, but the bite and bluster of old is now replaced with a sterner, more austere outlook towards batting. Like Raina and Yuvraj, the game –turning innings is a thing of the past. That along with his wicket-keeping burden will test Dhoni’s skills and temperament to the fullest. One wonders who will don the gloves if his dodgy back acts up again. It is all very well to say we will cross that bridge when we come to it, but with not even a part-time keeper in the team(Uthappa, Rohit Sharma are names that come to mind), one hopes that bridge never arrives.
4. The Mythical Allrounder – Let’s get realistic, there is no such thing as a genuine all-rounder in this line-up. We may like to think Pathan is one, and Dhoni may think Harbhajan is slowly turning into one, but we are just fooling ourselves here. An all-rounder is one who is expected to perform with both ball and bat. Pathan is a batsman who can bowl, and Singh the corollary to that. Lowering the standards will not change the definition. If Pathan is an all-rounder, so is Michael Clarke.
5. The Faulty Turbanator – My feelings on Harbhajan Singh aside, if this is India’s best spinner, we have a lot to fear for. Sure, he’s making a meal of the South Africans, but you don’t say you are number one if you beat Bangladesh all the time, do you? Sri Kanka and Pakistan play Singh with ease, and so too, ironically, Bangladesh. I can’t remember the last time the man actually had a match-winning performance with his tweakers. Yes, he’s in form with the bat, and I think we will see a lot of his batting given the form of our specialist batsmen, but that’s not what he should be bringing to the team. The team needs wickets, and wily craftsmanship – the Saeed Ajmal variety. Singh just does not make the cut in that department. What’s more tragic, nobody seems to want to tell him that.
6. The Middlers – Zaheer Khan is a super bowler, and I think he’s proven to be the spear head of this bowling attack. But does he figure in any impartial Best Bowler list? At a best pace of mid 130s, he’s certainly not the fastest, and on Indian pitches, doesn’t even carry the fear of swing and movement that he has in South Africa. On some of these pitches he will be carted for runs galore, and it won’t really be his fault. Praveen Kumar and Munaf Patel will most probably make up the rest of this genuinely medium pace attack. The former has injury concerns, but if he’s free of that, can prove to be someone hard to get away. Munaf has been a revelation in South Africa, and will have his days in the sun in this tournament, but he’s also someone capable of giving runs away at the rate of knots.
7. The Bench – If Dhoni has his way, Yuvraj and Raina will play in the 11, and the most consistent performer India has had in the limited overs game in recent times will spend more time on the bench than not. There is some talk of Yuvraj being dropped now, because of the sheer force of Kohli’s feats, but it all depends on what Dhoni will think is appropriate. Ashish Nehra will get a game or two as well, given Praveen Kumar’s tendency to break down easily. But that like replacing glass with paper. Nehra has had his own share of fitness and injury issues, so one does not get the warm, wooly feeling when one looks around and sees him on the bench. The reserve spinners may never see a game, though that would be a travesty at least in Ashwin’s case, cos that is one truly exciting prospect in this bunch. I had touted him as possibly leading the spin attack, but that is set to remain a pipe dream. I really can’t think of a situation, even in the sub continent where India would go into a match with a batsman or a “pacer” less. It’s happened before, of course, so no real point discounting it. But when that happens the chances of India winning that match reduces by a considerable percentage.
Winning a tournament takes loads of talent and hard work, but it also needs dollops of luck. India has hosted the World Cup twice already, and have seen their dreams crash around them, once because of some exciting and innovative batting from Sri Lanka, and once when a resurgent Australia pulled of a major surprise. This time around too, most pundits give India the best chance to win, and Ladbrokes has already installed them as the favorites. Home advantage, a hatful of confidence, and Captain Superb are what is in their favour. An unsettled 11, a batting line-up in uncertain form, a brave yet weak bowling attack, and a captain who just can’t correctly at the toss are what aren’t
On the balance sheet, this is a team that promises a lot, but on current form, I think we will find more reasons to doubt Srikant’s effusive optimism. I wish them luck – they may need a lot of it. And I wish me luck as well – to be able to watch with hope and to have my hopes of winning another World Cup, a perfect swansong for the greatest cricketing personality the world has ever seen. For Sachin Ramesh Tendulkar’s sake, I wish to be proved wrong. Go, India Go!
Don’t get me wrong, Srikant is right when he says he’s selected the best 15 possible. A post-selection mental poll reveals that most people agree with the selection, save for one or two choices. Most think Rohit Sharma should have got his chance. Most also think there should have been a second wicket-keeper. Some think there is one spinner too many. Well, all these viewpoints make sense, and so will the selectors’ counter. Rohit Sharma has not been doing too well recently. Besides, the decision was made to go with the extra bowler, so where was the place he could have taken? The extra wicketkeeper is usually a passenger, one of the few that will never get a significant game unless there was an injury to Dhoni, or if you wanted to rest him for one of the insignificant games (the premise being we will win every match before that, thus confirming our place in the knockouts well in time for us to experiment-a rather pompous assumption). The extra spinner provides variety. Harbhajan is an automatic choice, Ashwin the next best, and since both are offies, traditional common sense makes it mandatory to have a leggie over a left-armer.
There are flaws in each of those arguments, but let’s put all that aside and take a gander at what we have finally assembled as a team that is tasked with winning back the Cup.
1. The Mystery Triumvirate – This is the trio that will head India’s batting order. I presume Sehwag and Tendulkar will open, and Gambhir will follow. Besides the obvious injury concerns, none of these 3 have played too many one-day internationals recently, have not really proved consistent form, and are in constant danger of breaking down. Besides, India have played, and won, quite a few matches without them. No one doubts their caliber, but and one wonders if their reputations are worth tweaking a combination that works and was just coming good. If the 3 play, Pathan and Kohli or possibly Yuvraj are almost certain to miss out playing in the final 11. Ironic, since the first two just mentioned are in great form, and Pathan has certainly emerged as someone who could make the difference between a loss and a win.
2. The prince and the incumbent- Yuvraj and Raina will almost certainly make up nos 4 and 5. Both are in, to put it generously, indifferent form. It has been a while since either has won a match for India, though like the top 3, their past reputations had confirmed their place in this line-up ages ago. Can either of them win a match from 60 for 4 chasing 280 or more? I wouldn’t bet my valuables on it.
3. The Super Skipper – Well, of all his qualities, I think the average Indian fan will hope he will bring whatever lucky charms he uses to retain his Midas touch. There is no argument against his record, and his persona has brought about a certain strength in the team, an aggression that was hitherto missing in previous teams. When he won the inaugural T20 World Cup, the commentators had remarked on his team’s fearlessness that seemed to carry them out of seemingly hopeless situations. That team is older now, and positions of grandeur usually leads to delusions of other kinds of superiority. Of his batting, there are times when he has excelled when others fail, but the bite and bluster of old is now replaced with a sterner, more austere outlook towards batting. Like Raina and Yuvraj, the game –turning innings is a thing of the past. That along with his wicket-keeping burden will test Dhoni’s skills and temperament to the fullest. One wonders who will don the gloves if his dodgy back acts up again. It is all very well to say we will cross that bridge when we come to it, but with not even a part-time keeper in the team(Uthappa, Rohit Sharma are names that come to mind), one hopes that bridge never arrives.
4. The Mythical Allrounder – Let’s get realistic, there is no such thing as a genuine all-rounder in this line-up. We may like to think Pathan is one, and Dhoni may think Harbhajan is slowly turning into one, but we are just fooling ourselves here. An all-rounder is one who is expected to perform with both ball and bat. Pathan is a batsman who can bowl, and Singh the corollary to that. Lowering the standards will not change the definition. If Pathan is an all-rounder, so is Michael Clarke.
5. The Faulty Turbanator – My feelings on Harbhajan Singh aside, if this is India’s best spinner, we have a lot to fear for. Sure, he’s making a meal of the South Africans, but you don’t say you are number one if you beat Bangladesh all the time, do you? Sri Kanka and Pakistan play Singh with ease, and so too, ironically, Bangladesh. I can’t remember the last time the man actually had a match-winning performance with his tweakers. Yes, he’s in form with the bat, and I think we will see a lot of his batting given the form of our specialist batsmen, but that’s not what he should be bringing to the team. The team needs wickets, and wily craftsmanship – the Saeed Ajmal variety. Singh just does not make the cut in that department. What’s more tragic, nobody seems to want to tell him that.
6. The Middlers – Zaheer Khan is a super bowler, and I think he’s proven to be the spear head of this bowling attack. But does he figure in any impartial Best Bowler list? At a best pace of mid 130s, he’s certainly not the fastest, and on Indian pitches, doesn’t even carry the fear of swing and movement that he has in South Africa. On some of these pitches he will be carted for runs galore, and it won’t really be his fault. Praveen Kumar and Munaf Patel will most probably make up the rest of this genuinely medium pace attack. The former has injury concerns, but if he’s free of that, can prove to be someone hard to get away. Munaf has been a revelation in South Africa, and will have his days in the sun in this tournament, but he’s also someone capable of giving runs away at the rate of knots.
7. The Bench – If Dhoni has his way, Yuvraj and Raina will play in the 11, and the most consistent performer India has had in the limited overs game in recent times will spend more time on the bench than not. There is some talk of Yuvraj being dropped now, because of the sheer force of Kohli’s feats, but it all depends on what Dhoni will think is appropriate. Ashish Nehra will get a game or two as well, given Praveen Kumar’s tendency to break down easily. But that like replacing glass with paper. Nehra has had his own share of fitness and injury issues, so one does not get the warm, wooly feeling when one looks around and sees him on the bench. The reserve spinners may never see a game, though that would be a travesty at least in Ashwin’s case, cos that is one truly exciting prospect in this bunch. I had touted him as possibly leading the spin attack, but that is set to remain a pipe dream. I really can’t think of a situation, even in the sub continent where India would go into a match with a batsman or a “pacer” less. It’s happened before, of course, so no real point discounting it. But when that happens the chances of India winning that match reduces by a considerable percentage.
Winning a tournament takes loads of talent and hard work, but it also needs dollops of luck. India has hosted the World Cup twice already, and have seen their dreams crash around them, once because of some exciting and innovative batting from Sri Lanka, and once when a resurgent Australia pulled of a major surprise. This time around too, most pundits give India the best chance to win, and Ladbrokes has already installed them as the favorites. Home advantage, a hatful of confidence, and Captain Superb are what is in their favour. An unsettled 11, a batting line-up in uncertain form, a brave yet weak bowling attack, and a captain who just can’t correctly at the toss are what aren’t
On the balance sheet, this is a team that promises a lot, but on current form, I think we will find more reasons to doubt Srikant’s effusive optimism. I wish them luck – they may need a lot of it. And I wish me luck as well – to be able to watch with hope and to have my hopes of winning another World Cup, a perfect swansong for the greatest cricketing personality the world has ever seen. For Sachin Ramesh Tendulkar’s sake, I wish to be proved wrong. Go, India Go!
Sunday, January 16, 2011
Why India will NOT win the 2011 World Cup
Before we start branding yours truly a national traitor and villain-in-general, let me try and qualify that title. I am basing my claim not on emotions, statistical analysis, expert opinion or even astrological alignment of the stars. All these, on the contrary are actually saying the Indians are favorites. The conditions are favorable, being home grounds and all, the team is confident, and they are led by what most will agree is a dynamic, if slightly fortunate captain. They say fortune favours the brave, and no one can deny the undeniable impact that Mahendra Singh Dhoni has brought to this confident looking Indian side. All this is beyond debate.
What is debatable is the Indian selection policy, and current form of the primary Indian players. At the time of writing this, the final 15 has not been selected. There are 30 very eager, very nervous cricketers that are chewing their nails off in anticipation of the big announcement on 17 January. Well, 30 is an inaccurate number. At least 10 of these men walk right into the team, and they know it, and there are millions of supporters behind each of the probables equally if not more emotionally invested in this circus. So a lot more than 30, yet paradoxically not all of the 30.
And therein lies the problem. Or at least part of it. It is my contention that the final 15 will contain names that are just that – names with reputations tagged to them. In many ways, an Australian side with several unfamiliar names is probably a better bet to go a long way in the tournament than this Indian 15. Kris Shrikant has been a very lucky man. He’s had more successes than failures, and the country has willingly forgotten grave debacles like the abject T20 WC failure. However, there have been some brave decisions he’s made. Dropping Yuvraj Singh from the Tests in favour of Suresh Raina has been one of them. I do think however, selecting the WC team will be a tougher deal, and he will be forced to take some decisions against his, and ultimately the logically, better judgement. His will be a constriction of reputation. And thank God Dada isn’t in the reckoning this time, cos that would have been hairy as hell.
This piece will be in 2 parts. One will set out what I think will be the chosen 15 for the World Cup. Not my 15, but what I think the selectors will go with. The choice will be obvious with very little surprise. In fact, barring injury, and a few fringe places like the second wicket-keeper, and the 7th batsman, very few places are up for grabs. The rest are taken, whether deservedly so or not.
The second part will be written post selection, when I will attempt to analyse each selected player, his strengths and weaknesses, and why that entire combination (whichever the selectors end up with ) will fail to win silverware. In fact, with the kind of sick feeling which the night watch on the Titanic had when they saw the white growth in the sea where there should have been none, I don’t think the team will progress very far in the tournament. They might just make the knockouts, but any further…Don’t get me wrong, I’m the staunchest closet fan of this team, and I sincerely hope I’m going to have to eat this blog. It’s just that the odds are against that happening. We may look like we have the advantage going in, but that happened before. In terms of form, quality, composure, and composition, we just - don't - make - the - cut.
So let’s see who the 30 from the provisional are –
Bats-
1. Virendra Sehwag
2. Gautam Gambhir
3. Sachin Tendulkar
4. Murali Vijay
5. Virat Kohli
6. Rohit Sharma
7. Yuvraj Singh
8. Suresh Raina
9. Saurabh Tiwari
10. Ajinkya Rahane
11. Shikhar Dhawan
Balls-
1. Zaheer Khan
2. Ashish Nehra
3. Ishant Sharma
4. S. Sreesanth
5. Munaf Patel
6. Praveen Kumar
7. Harbhajan Singh
8. Piyush Chawla
9. Pragyan Ojha
10. Amit Mishra
11. R. Ashwin
12. Vinay Kumar
All-rounders(so-called)
1. Yusuf Pathan
2. Ravindra Jadeja
Keepers
1. Mahendra Singh Dhoni
2. Dinesh Kartik
3. Wridhiman Saha
4. Parthiv Patel
Let’s take a look at these. Just from the composition, you can see the problem the selectors have, and how they have tried to address it. The 6 or 7 batsmen that will go into the final 15 more or less select themselves, so we have the complimentary addition of Vijay, Rahane and Dhawan, just to make up the numbers. But the very fact that there are more bowlers in the mix than batsmen tells you that this is where the lacunae is, and that the selectors, helped no doubt by recent performances and the captain’s trust in them (or lack thereof), are really worried about this aspect. So we see the 30 crammed with the previously tried and tested, some of whom (Chawla, Mishra) one may not have faulted for believing had had their final shots at international cricket already. Ian Chappell had remarked in his much lampooned article that India cannot consider itself a world power until it had a world-class bowling attack. Though that was said in the context of the Test match scenario, he isn’t very far from being right even when taken in the limited overs format. Any impartial, or even fiercely partial follower of the game will admit that India’s attack is far from potent.
Of course, one might argue that on these sub-continent pitches, bowling really does not matter. I beg to disagree. Bowlers like Dale Steyn, Doug Bollinger, and Graeme Swann, just to name a few, will perform under any conditions, and have the skill to conquer any batsman.
So, who will make the final cut?
Well this is who I feel the selectors will go with:
Sehwag, Gambhir, Tendulkar, Raina, Kohli, Y. Singh, Pathan, Dhoni, P Patel/Saha, Zaheer, Nehra, M Patel, P Kumar, H Singh, Ashwin
I’m a little unsure about how the Patel Saha discussion will go, but this is one I hope Srikant will do correctly and hand his CSK ward Patel the place.
Of course, there is always one monumental blunder that the selectors always make, besides the ones they already have if the above list is accurate, but I can’t really predict or account for abject stupidity.
Now, all of us have their fave 15 list, and I can see that many will shake their heads and say, No way, this guy should make it too…and with good reason no doubt. I too have my perfect 15, but even that combo is unlikely to win us the Cup.
My 15 –
Gambhir, Tendulkar, R Sharma, Raina, Kohli, Pathan, Tiwari, Dhoni, P Patel, Zaheer, Nehra, M Patel, P Kumar, Ashwin, Ojha
A couple of obvious omissions, and by far not the best combo, given the inconsistent form that some of these guys have shown in the past. Only Gambhir, Kohli and Ashwin have some consistency going into the Cup. The rest you just hope have more good days than bad. A point of concern is Gambhir’s tendency to take a break after a run of 2 to 3 matches, and that kinda puts a cramp in the style a little.
So why drop Sehwag, Yuvraj, and Harbhajan, you may ask. Well, Sehwag is just coming back from an indifferent tour and I’ve never fancied his chances in a field set for him in the one-day scenario. In any one day game, the start is crucial, and we just can't rely on old Sehwag to give it to us at least 70% of the time. Yuvraj has played some great innings in the past and is one person in the 30 who could turn a game on his own. But he’s fat, slow, and has just the wrong attitude to piss me off, enough to ignore his occasional patches of good form. Harbhajan, as one article in cricinfo very aptly put it recently, is the most hyped spinner that never came good. We have enough paper tigers, we need ones that bite. I prefer Ojha to Harbhajan cos I think in the battle of restrictive bowling, they are both winners, but I’ve always felt Ojha was the better spinner.
That said, I’m pretty sure these 3 will find their way into the final team, so I will save my detailed criticism for when that list comes out…
What is debatable is the Indian selection policy, and current form of the primary Indian players. At the time of writing this, the final 15 has not been selected. There are 30 very eager, very nervous cricketers that are chewing their nails off in anticipation of the big announcement on 17 January. Well, 30 is an inaccurate number. At least 10 of these men walk right into the team, and they know it, and there are millions of supporters behind each of the probables equally if not more emotionally invested in this circus. So a lot more than 30, yet paradoxically not all of the 30.
And therein lies the problem. Or at least part of it. It is my contention that the final 15 will contain names that are just that – names with reputations tagged to them. In many ways, an Australian side with several unfamiliar names is probably a better bet to go a long way in the tournament than this Indian 15. Kris Shrikant has been a very lucky man. He’s had more successes than failures, and the country has willingly forgotten grave debacles like the abject T20 WC failure. However, there have been some brave decisions he’s made. Dropping Yuvraj Singh from the Tests in favour of Suresh Raina has been one of them. I do think however, selecting the WC team will be a tougher deal, and he will be forced to take some decisions against his, and ultimately the logically, better judgement. His will be a constriction of reputation. And thank God Dada isn’t in the reckoning this time, cos that would have been hairy as hell.
This piece will be in 2 parts. One will set out what I think will be the chosen 15 for the World Cup. Not my 15, but what I think the selectors will go with. The choice will be obvious with very little surprise. In fact, barring injury, and a few fringe places like the second wicket-keeper, and the 7th batsman, very few places are up for grabs. The rest are taken, whether deservedly so or not.
The second part will be written post selection, when I will attempt to analyse each selected player, his strengths and weaknesses, and why that entire combination (whichever the selectors end up with ) will fail to win silverware. In fact, with the kind of sick feeling which the night watch on the Titanic had when they saw the white growth in the sea where there should have been none, I don’t think the team will progress very far in the tournament. They might just make the knockouts, but any further…Don’t get me wrong, I’m the staunchest closet fan of this team, and I sincerely hope I’m going to have to eat this blog. It’s just that the odds are against that happening. We may look like we have the advantage going in, but that happened before. In terms of form, quality, composure, and composition, we just - don't - make - the - cut.
So let’s see who the 30 from the provisional are –
Bats-
1. Virendra Sehwag
2. Gautam Gambhir
3. Sachin Tendulkar
4. Murali Vijay
5. Virat Kohli
6. Rohit Sharma
7. Yuvraj Singh
8. Suresh Raina
9. Saurabh Tiwari
10. Ajinkya Rahane
11. Shikhar Dhawan
Balls-
1. Zaheer Khan
2. Ashish Nehra
3. Ishant Sharma
4. S. Sreesanth
5. Munaf Patel
6. Praveen Kumar
7. Harbhajan Singh
8. Piyush Chawla
9. Pragyan Ojha
10. Amit Mishra
11. R. Ashwin
12. Vinay Kumar
All-rounders(so-called)
1. Yusuf Pathan
2. Ravindra Jadeja
Keepers
1. Mahendra Singh Dhoni
2. Dinesh Kartik
3. Wridhiman Saha
4. Parthiv Patel
Let’s take a look at these. Just from the composition, you can see the problem the selectors have, and how they have tried to address it. The 6 or 7 batsmen that will go into the final 15 more or less select themselves, so we have the complimentary addition of Vijay, Rahane and Dhawan, just to make up the numbers. But the very fact that there are more bowlers in the mix than batsmen tells you that this is where the lacunae is, and that the selectors, helped no doubt by recent performances and the captain’s trust in them (or lack thereof), are really worried about this aspect. So we see the 30 crammed with the previously tried and tested, some of whom (Chawla, Mishra) one may not have faulted for believing had had their final shots at international cricket already. Ian Chappell had remarked in his much lampooned article that India cannot consider itself a world power until it had a world-class bowling attack. Though that was said in the context of the Test match scenario, he isn’t very far from being right even when taken in the limited overs format. Any impartial, or even fiercely partial follower of the game will admit that India’s attack is far from potent.
Of course, one might argue that on these sub-continent pitches, bowling really does not matter. I beg to disagree. Bowlers like Dale Steyn, Doug Bollinger, and Graeme Swann, just to name a few, will perform under any conditions, and have the skill to conquer any batsman.
So, who will make the final cut?
Well this is who I feel the selectors will go with:
Sehwag, Gambhir, Tendulkar, Raina, Kohli, Y. Singh, Pathan, Dhoni, P Patel/Saha, Zaheer, Nehra, M Patel, P Kumar, H Singh, Ashwin
I’m a little unsure about how the Patel Saha discussion will go, but this is one I hope Srikant will do correctly and hand his CSK ward Patel the place.
Of course, there is always one monumental blunder that the selectors always make, besides the ones they already have if the above list is accurate, but I can’t really predict or account for abject stupidity.
Now, all of us have their fave 15 list, and I can see that many will shake their heads and say, No way, this guy should make it too…and with good reason no doubt. I too have my perfect 15, but even that combo is unlikely to win us the Cup.
My 15 –
Gambhir, Tendulkar, R Sharma, Raina, Kohli, Pathan, Tiwari, Dhoni, P Patel, Zaheer, Nehra, M Patel, P Kumar, Ashwin, Ojha
A couple of obvious omissions, and by far not the best combo, given the inconsistent form that some of these guys have shown in the past. Only Gambhir, Kohli and Ashwin have some consistency going into the Cup. The rest you just hope have more good days than bad. A point of concern is Gambhir’s tendency to take a break after a run of 2 to 3 matches, and that kinda puts a cramp in the style a little.
So why drop Sehwag, Yuvraj, and Harbhajan, you may ask. Well, Sehwag is just coming back from an indifferent tour and I’ve never fancied his chances in a field set for him in the one-day scenario. In any one day game, the start is crucial, and we just can't rely on old Sehwag to give it to us at least 70% of the time. Yuvraj has played some great innings in the past and is one person in the 30 who could turn a game on his own. But he’s fat, slow, and has just the wrong attitude to piss me off, enough to ignore his occasional patches of good form. Harbhajan, as one article in cricinfo very aptly put it recently, is the most hyped spinner that never came good. We have enough paper tigers, we need ones that bite. I prefer Ojha to Harbhajan cos I think in the battle of restrictive bowling, they are both winners, but I’ve always felt Ojha was the better spinner.
That said, I’m pretty sure these 3 will find their way into the final team, so I will save my detailed criticism for when that list comes out…
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