Part 2: Be Positive!!

“Be positive, why you have to think negative all the time??” exclaimed the venerable K Srikant. That was the way he played his cricket, so I guess he is entitled to expect leaps of faith from everyone else. And a closer look at the final 15 selected by his team will reveal cracks of a worrying nature. Cracks that will be decisive in the chase for India’s elusive second World Cup title. Cracks which will in my opinion prevent India from winning this in about a month’s time.

Don’t get me wrong, Srikant is right when he says he’s selected the best 15 possible. A post-selection mental poll reveals that most people agree with the selection, save for one or two choices. Most think Rohit Sharma should have got his chance. Most also think there should have been a second wicket-keeper. Some think there is one spinner too many. Well, all these viewpoints make sense, and so will the selectors’ counter. Rohit Sharma has not been doing too well recently. Besides, the decision was made to go with the extra bowler, so where was the place he could have taken? The extra wicketkeeper is usually a passenger, one of the few that will never get a significant game unless there was an injury to Dhoni, or if you wanted to rest him for one of the insignificant games (the premise being we will win every match before that, thus confirming our place in the knockouts well in time for us to experiment-a rather pompous assumption). The extra spinner provides variety. Harbhajan is an automatic choice, Ashwin the next best, and since both are offies, traditional common sense makes it mandatory to have a leggie over a left-armer.

There are flaws in each of those arguments, but let’s put all that aside and take a gander at what we have finally assembled as a team that is tasked with winning back the Cup.

1. The Mystery Triumvirate – This is the trio that will head India’s batting order. I presume Sehwag and Tendulkar will open, and Gambhir will follow. Besides the obvious injury concerns, none of these 3 have played too many one-day internationals recently, have not really proved consistent form, and are in constant danger of breaking down. Besides, India have played, and won, quite a few matches without them. No one doubts their caliber, but and one wonders if their reputations are worth tweaking a combination that works and was just coming good. If the 3 play, Pathan and Kohli or possibly Yuvraj are almost certain to miss out playing in the final 11. Ironic, since the first two just mentioned are in great form, and Pathan has certainly emerged as someone who could make the difference between a loss and a win.
2. The prince and the incumbent- Yuvraj and Raina will almost certainly make up nos 4 and 5. Both are in, to put it generously, indifferent form. It has been a while since either has won a match for India, though like the top 3, their past reputations had confirmed their place in this line-up ages ago. Can either of them win a match from 60 for 4 chasing 280 or more? I wouldn’t bet my valuables on it.
3. The Super Skipper – Well, of all his qualities, I think the average Indian fan will hope he will bring whatever lucky charms he uses to retain his Midas touch. There is no argument against his record, and his persona has brought about a certain strength in the team, an aggression that was hitherto missing in previous teams. When he won the inaugural T20 World Cup, the commentators had remarked on his team’s fearlessness that seemed to carry them out of seemingly hopeless situations. That team is older now, and positions of grandeur usually leads to delusions of other kinds of superiority. Of his batting, there are times when he has excelled when others fail, but the bite and bluster of old is now replaced with a sterner, more austere outlook towards batting. Like Raina and Yuvraj, the game –turning innings is a thing of the past. That along with his wicket-keeping burden will test Dhoni’s skills and temperament to the fullest. One wonders who will don the gloves if his dodgy back acts up again. It is all very well to say we will cross that bridge when we come to it, but with not even a part-time keeper in the team(Uthappa, Rohit Sharma are names that come to mind), one hopes that bridge never arrives.
4. The Mythical Allrounder – Let’s get realistic, there is no such thing as a genuine all-rounder in this line-up. We may like to think Pathan is one, and Dhoni may think Harbhajan is slowly turning into one, but we are just fooling ourselves here. An all-rounder is one who is expected to perform with both ball and bat. Pathan is a batsman who can bowl, and Singh the corollary to that. Lowering the standards will not change the definition. If Pathan is an all-rounder, so is Michael Clarke.
5. The Faulty Turbanator – My feelings on Harbhajan Singh aside, if this is India’s best spinner, we have a lot to fear for. Sure, he’s making a meal of the South Africans, but you don’t say you are number one if you beat Bangladesh all the time, do you? Sri Kanka and Pakistan play Singh with ease, and so too, ironically, Bangladesh. I can’t remember the last time the man actually had a match-winning performance with his tweakers. Yes, he’s in form with the bat, and I think we will see a lot of his batting given the form of our specialist batsmen, but that’s not what he should be bringing to the team. The team needs wickets, and wily craftsmanship – the Saeed Ajmal variety. Singh just does not make the cut in that department. What’s more tragic, nobody seems to want to tell him that.
6. The Middlers – Zaheer Khan is a super bowler, and I think he’s proven to be the spear head of this bowling attack. But does he figure in any impartial Best Bowler list? At a best pace of mid 130s, he’s certainly not the fastest, and on Indian pitches, doesn’t even carry the fear of swing and movement that he has in South Africa. On some of these pitches he will be carted for runs galore, and it won’t really be his fault. Praveen Kumar and Munaf Patel will most probably make up the rest of this genuinely medium pace attack. The former has injury concerns, but if he’s free of that, can prove to be someone hard to get away. Munaf has been a revelation in South Africa, and will have his days in the sun in this tournament, but he’s also someone capable of giving runs away at the rate of knots.
7. The Bench – If Dhoni has his way, Yuvraj and Raina will play in the 11, and the most consistent performer India has had in the limited overs game in recent times will spend more time on the bench than not. There is some talk of Yuvraj being dropped now, because of the sheer force of Kohli’s feats, but it all depends on what Dhoni will think is appropriate. Ashish Nehra will get a game or two as well, given Praveen Kumar’s tendency to break down easily. But that like replacing glass with paper. Nehra has had his own share of fitness and injury issues, so one does not get the warm, wooly feeling when one looks around and sees him on the bench. The reserve spinners may never see a game, though that would be a travesty at least in Ashwin’s case, cos that is one truly exciting prospect in this bunch. I had touted him as possibly leading the spin attack, but that is set to remain a pipe dream. I really can’t think of a situation, even in the sub continent where India would go into a match with a batsman or a “pacer” less. It’s happened before, of course, so no real point discounting it. But when that happens the chances of India winning that match reduces by a considerable percentage.

Winning a tournament takes loads of talent and hard work, but it also needs dollops of luck. India has hosted the World Cup twice already, and have seen their dreams crash around them, once because of some exciting and innovative batting from Sri Lanka, and once when a resurgent Australia pulled of a major surprise. This time around too, most pundits give India the best chance to win, and Ladbrokes has already installed them as the favorites. Home advantage, a hatful of confidence, and Captain Superb are what is in their favour. An unsettled 11, a batting line-up in uncertain form, a brave yet weak bowling attack, and a captain who just can’t correctly at the toss are what aren’t

On the balance sheet, this is a team that promises a lot, but on current form, I think we will find more reasons to doubt Srikant’s effusive optimism. I wish them luck – they may need a lot of it. And I wish me luck as well – to be able to watch with hope and to have my hopes of winning another World Cup, a perfect swansong for the greatest cricketing personality the world has ever seen. For Sachin Ramesh Tendulkar’s sake, I wish to be proved wrong. Go, India Go!

Why India will NOT win the 2011 World Cup

Before we start branding yours truly a national traitor and villain-in-general, let me try and qualify that title. I am basing my claim not on emotions, statistical analysis, expert opinion or even astrological alignment of the stars. All these, on the contrary are actually saying the Indians are favorites. The conditions are favorable, being home grounds and all, the team is confident, and they are led by what most will agree is a dynamic, if slightly fortunate captain. They say fortune favours the brave, and no one can deny the undeniable impact that Mahendra Singh Dhoni has brought to this confident looking Indian side. All this is beyond debate.

What is debatable is the Indian selection policy, and current form of the primary Indian players. At the time of writing this, the final 15 has not been selected. There are 30 very eager, very nervous cricketers that are chewing their nails off in anticipation of the big announcement on 17 January. Well, 30 is an inaccurate number. At least 10 of these men walk right into the team, and they know it, and there are millions of supporters behind each of the probables equally if not more emotionally invested in this circus. So a lot more than 30, yet paradoxically not all of the 30.

And therein lies the problem. Or at least part of it. It is my contention that the final 15 will contain names that are just that – names with reputations tagged to them. In many ways, an Australian side with several unfamiliar names is probably a better bet to go a long way in the tournament than this Indian 15. Kris Shrikant has been a very lucky man. He’s had more successes than failures, and the country has willingly forgotten grave debacles like the abject T20 WC failure. However, there have been some brave decisions he’s made. Dropping Yuvraj Singh from the Tests in favour of Suresh Raina has been one of them. I do think however, selecting the WC team will be a tougher deal, and he will be forced to take some decisions against his, and ultimately the logically, better judgement. His will be a constriction of reputation. And thank God Dada isn’t in the reckoning this time, cos that would have been hairy as hell.

This piece will be in 2 parts. One will set out what I think will be the chosen 15 for the World Cup. Not my 15, but what I think the selectors will go with. The choice will be obvious with very little surprise. In fact, barring injury, and a few fringe places like the second wicket-keeper, and the 7th batsman, very few places are up for grabs. The rest are taken, whether deservedly so or not.

The second part will be written post selection, when I will attempt to analyse each selected player, his strengths and weaknesses, and why that entire combination (whichever the selectors end up with ) will fail to win silverware. In fact, with the kind of sick feeling which the night watch on the Titanic had when they saw the white growth in the sea where there should have been none, I don’t think the team will progress very far in the tournament. They might just make the knockouts, but any further…Don’t get me wrong, I’m the staunchest closet fan of this team, and I sincerely hope I’m going to have to eat this blog. It’s just that the odds are against that happening. We may look like we have the advantage going in, but that happened before. In terms of form, quality, composure, and composition, we just - don't - make - the - cut.

So let’s see who the 30 from the provisional are –
Bats-
1. Virendra Sehwag
2. Gautam Gambhir
3. Sachin Tendulkar
4. Murali Vijay
5. Virat Kohli
6. Rohit Sharma
7. Yuvraj Singh
8. Suresh Raina
9. Saurabh Tiwari
10. Ajinkya Rahane
11. Shikhar Dhawan

Balls-
1. Zaheer Khan
2. Ashish Nehra
3. Ishant Sharma
4. S. Sreesanth
5. Munaf Patel
6. Praveen Kumar
7. Harbhajan Singh
8. Piyush Chawla
9. Pragyan Ojha
10. Amit Mishra
11. R. Ashwin
12. Vinay Kumar

All-rounders(so-called)
1. Yusuf Pathan
2. Ravindra Jadeja

Keepers
1. Mahendra Singh Dhoni
2. Dinesh Kartik
3. Wridhiman Saha
4. Parthiv Patel

Let’s take a look at these. Just from the composition, you can see the problem the selectors have, and how they have tried to address it. The 6 or 7 batsmen that will go into the final 15 more or less select themselves, so we have the complimentary addition of Vijay, Rahane and Dhawan, just to make up the numbers. But the very fact that there are more bowlers in the mix than batsmen tells you that this is where the lacunae is, and that the selectors, helped no doubt by recent performances and the captain’s trust in them (or lack thereof), are really worried about this aspect. So we see the 30 crammed with the previously tried and tested, some of whom (Chawla, Mishra) one may not have faulted for believing had had their final shots at international cricket already. Ian Chappell had remarked in his much lampooned article that India cannot consider itself a world power until it had a world-class bowling attack. Though that was said in the context of the Test match scenario, he isn’t very far from being right even when taken in the limited overs format. Any impartial, or even fiercely partial follower of the game will admit that India’s attack is far from potent.

Of course, one might argue that on these sub-continent pitches, bowling really does not matter. I beg to disagree. Bowlers like Dale Steyn, Doug Bollinger, and Graeme Swann, just to name a few, will perform under any conditions, and have the skill to conquer any batsman.

So, who will make the final cut?

Well this is who I feel the selectors will go with:
Sehwag, Gambhir, Tendulkar, Raina, Kohli, Y. Singh, Pathan, Dhoni, P Patel/Saha, Zaheer, Nehra, M Patel, P Kumar, H Singh, Ashwin

I’m a little unsure about how the Patel Saha discussion will go, but this is one I hope Srikant will do correctly and hand his CSK ward Patel the place.

Of course, there is always one monumental blunder that the selectors always make, besides the ones they already have if the above list is accurate, but I can’t really predict or account for abject stupidity.

Now, all of us have their fave 15 list, and I can see that many will shake their heads and say, No way, this guy should make it too…and with good reason no doubt. I too have my perfect 15, but even that combo is unlikely to win us the Cup.

My 15 –
Gambhir, Tendulkar, R Sharma, Raina, Kohli, Pathan, Tiwari, Dhoni, P Patel, Zaheer, Nehra, M Patel, P Kumar, Ashwin, Ojha

A couple of obvious omissions, and by far not the best combo, given the inconsistent form that some of these guys have shown in the past. Only Gambhir, Kohli and Ashwin have some consistency going into the Cup. The rest you just hope have more good days than bad. A point of concern is Gambhir’s tendency to take a break after a run of 2 to 3 matches, and that kinda puts a cramp in the style a little.

So why drop Sehwag, Yuvraj, and Harbhajan, you may ask. Well, Sehwag is just coming back from an indifferent tour and I’ve never fancied his chances in a field set for him in the one-day scenario. In any one day game, the start is crucial, and we just can't rely on old Sehwag to give it to us at least 70% of the time. Yuvraj has played some great innings in the past and is one person in the 30 who could turn a game on his own. But he’s fat, slow, and has just the wrong attitude to piss me off, enough to ignore his occasional patches of good form. Harbhajan, as one article in cricinfo very aptly put it recently, is the most hyped spinner that never came good. We have enough paper tigers, we need ones that bite. I prefer Ojha to Harbhajan cos I think in the battle of restrictive bowling, they are both winners, but I’ve always felt Ojha was the better spinner.

That said, I’m pretty sure these 3 will find their way into the final team, so I will save my detailed criticism for when that list comes out…