This needed to be written a few weeks ago, when the Indian team was tying their bootlaces, in batches, in preparation of the journey to fair Australia. With all the tension and hype that usually surrounds a tour Down Under, channels playing up the controversies of the past, commentators turning into media personalities with opinions that mattered to god-knows-who, images of Ponting growling, and an ironically missing Shane Watson sniggering "It's hot in Australia" were all over the sports channels. The first Test is on now, with Day 3 just out of the way, so some of my upcoming comments will appear less of a prediction and more of a I told you so. Be that as it may, I can say that my views have not changed much since a couple of weeks ago, and those thoughts are what I am going to try and express.
Things have changed since the last tour down under. The acrimonious 2008 tour was between 2 Test teams at the pinnacle of Test cricket, competing for the World no 1 tag. If that gave the skirmishes on and off field that extra bite, then this time around, despite all the media attempts to raise the level of hoopla, the stakes are lower. At least on paper. Australia is a team in the nascent stages of a revival, with several question marks hanging over its batting order, its young pace attack, and the qualities of the new skipper. India is still to emerge from the shadows of the hut they crept into after the horrific beating they received in England, just after the euphoria of the World Cup win. Only a seriously deluded individual would point at recent triumphs against England(one-day) and the West Indies(Test and one-day) as anything more than expected results. Losses in these series would have meant catastrophe in every sense of that word.
So both teams have something to prove, and are also not that high in the pecking order to believe that the rest of the world is in stop-press mode to watch this series. That said, there's no reason why we should not look forward to it, simply because this is Test cricket being played by two very good sides. Batting travails notwithstanding, Australia has a lot going for it, and despite the recent Test loss to New Zealand at home, they have every chance of keeping the Border-Gavaskar trophy within the confines of the CA office.
On with the predictions then. Well, what the final result in terms of score will be I will not hazard to guess. In terms of the result, I fear that Australia will retain the trophy, either by winning the series, or by sharing honours with India. the reasons are not very different from my prognosis of the World Cup fortunes of the Indian team. And yes, I know I had to eat my words back then, but there are some critical game changers that need considering.
1. This is not a home series - The last overseas trip saw the Indians return home without a single win, and traditionally Australia has never been kind to Indian cricketers. While several commentators have picked this as the best opportunity for a first ever triumph down under, they seem to be blind to the frailties of the Indian team.
2. Mystery bowlers - on paper, when the original team was announced, I exulted at what I saw as potentially the best attack I had seen in an Indian team. Zaheer is one of the top 5 bowlers in the world today when fit, Ishant has the potential to follow in his footsteps despite an indifferent series in England, and later; Young tearaways Umesh Yadav and Varun Aaron were as fast as the paciest in the world, and had aspects to the game that induced salivation in those who had been fed on a diet of prasads, prabhakars and praveen kumars for as long as they could remember. The spin troika had me so excited I went crazy on twitter one day. variety, guile, and great promise. All it seemingly needs to achieve greatness was encouragement and as Michael Clarke put it in reference to the young Ed Cummings 'looking after'. But that picture was soiled a bit, first when Aaron had to pull out with injury, joining Praveen Kumar and Sreesanth on the sidelines, then as Ishant Sharma bowled 5 and a half overs in a warm-up game and seemed to be nursing his ankle. With Zak on the comeback trail, the signs were ominous. I have little confidence in Mithun and Vinay Kumar and hope they stay on the bench for the Test series at least. Not that they aren't good bowlers, but because they may not be the kind of bowlers suited to this environment. Luckily enough both Ishant and Zak started the first test, but clearly both are just finding their rhythms and I fear that will cost us the first Test. Ishant is bowling well, but it seems like he's holding back just a touch, as if afraid of straining pulling or stretching something. and he's not had the best of luck either, bring to mind the sad old story of Javagal Srinath, who would toil all day, beat all kinds of batsmen and have didley-squat to show for it.
3. Brittle batting - this is a age-old, era-old problem and doesn't need explanation. Darren Sammy recently said, the Indian batsmen just keep coming at you, so you can never say you are safe if a bunch of wickets fall together. That is undoubtedly true, but there are times that all these feared bats collapse in a heap, as we say this morning when we lost 8 wickets for 68. The most exciting batting line-up in the world is also frail, and susceptible to applied pressure. And in a reversal of fortunes, we find the in-form Rohit Sharma having to watch from the sidelines, preference naturally going to the consistent Virat Kohli. Ian Chappell did have a case when he pitched for the inclusion of the more talented and equipped Sharma, but it would have been unfair to young Kohli, especially since he's shown no perceptible dip in form. The difference may be in temperament though. Sharma is as dogged as he is swash-buckling, and perhaps that makes a case for his inclusion in the next Test. And who knows, Kohli might churn out a match-making innings the second time around. Tomorrow, quite literally is a different day (By the time this is published, India would be preparing to chase down 250 in the fourth innings to win the match.)
4. The little battles - at the end of the day, this series might well be decided by virtue of which side wins the most number of sessions, or even actions. The odd stolen run, the odd half-chance caught, the odd run save, the urgency of the running. Sehwag might well hit more boundaries than the rest of the players combined, but the type of running between wickets that Ponting and Hussey put on display today might well make the difference between winning and losing. From 27 for 4 to 179 for 8, mostly through aggressive running and stroke making is the type of cricket for which the Australians have always been revered. Its why we might bowl better than them, but still not win. Its why the Aussie selectors retain faith in the old guard even when the deafening clamour is for the scalps of two of the finest batsmen in their history.
So it will be close, close enough for this to be a tight series, but despite the depleted strength of the hosts, I believe there is enough there to squeeze past the indians. And God forbid, should the second innings batting collapse be worse than our collective imagination, or should one of Zak or Ishant break down, the psychological advantage will be enough to firmly tilt the scales towards the Aussies.
